Export may be below US$ 2 billion in 2008

Export of hide high added value is 2/3 of the total
Vertiginous slump in Wet Blue export (44%)

The slump of export of bovine hide continues. In quantity, 22.04%. In value, 5.94%. From January to September 2008 the total of exported hides was 5,546,280 less than in the same period of 2007. Why? Wolfgang Goerlich has clarified in the brilliant analysis in the previous edition of COUROBUSINESS. There is a substantial slump in exports of Wet Blue hide (less 44%), which can be partially explained by an unrealistic value that kept the Wet Blue too expensive, and also by the slump in demand of the U.S. market for leather for furniture (see Goerlich), reached the U.S. real estate crisis. It is a framework that does not tend to change. Instead, the real estate crisis followed by the financial crisis tends to amplify the consequences of slump, mainly because China, an important purchaser of leather, is watching the powerless U.S. market reduce their purchases of shoes. It is the negative reaction in chain, which is still unpredictable in terms of numbers. The results in value can reflect the behavior of the market. Due to a mean value that is still expressive, the slump in value is lower, but it is linked to an expectation of total exports in 2008 that may be just under US$ 2 billion, when the estimates of the beginning of the year was US$ 2.5 billion (see tables 1, 2 and 3, below).

Tabela 1 - Exportação de Couros Por Nº de Couros Janeiro a Setembro - 2008 x 2007 Table 1 - Leather Exportation / By Nº of Hides January to September  – 2008 x 2007
Tipo de Couro Kind of leather	Jan/Set 2008	Jan/Set 2007	2008/2007 (%)
Salgado / Salted	52.559	50.261	4,57%
Wet-Blue	6.863.578	12.250.116	-43,97%
Crust	3.630.596	3.610.136	0,57%
Acabado / Finished	9.069.698	9.252.198	-1,97%
Sub-Total	19.616.431	25.162.711	-22,04%
Solas / Soles	327.774	371.344	-11,73%
Ovinos / Sheep	514.692	618.723	-16,81%
Caprinos / Goats	82.021	150.855	-45,63%
Total Geral	20.540.918	26.303.633	-21,91%

Fonte/ Source: SECEX – Organização/ Organization: COUROBUSINESS

 

 

Tabela 2 - Exportação de Couros/ Por Valor - US$ 1,00 Janeiro a Setembro – 2008 x 2007 Table 2 - Leather Exportation/ By Value – US$ 1.00 January to September  – 2008 x 2007
Tipo de Couro Kind of leather	Jan/Set 2008	Jan/Set 2007	2008/2007 (%)
Salgado / Salted	1.685.470	688.700	144,73%
Wet-Blue	337.455.084	555.722.739	-39,28%
Crust	286.741.807	272.459.561	5,24%
Acabado / Finished	886.871.765	779.471.235	13,78%
Sub-Total	1.512.754.126	1.608.342.235	-5,94%
Solas /Soles	14.524.267	15.419.283	-5,80%
Ovinos / Sheep	8.604.121	10.122.659	-15,00%
Caprinos / Goats	1.371.009	1.061.451	29,16%
Total Geral	1.537.253.523	1.634.945.628	-5,98%

Fonte/ Source: SECEX – Organização/ Organization: COUROBUSINESS

 

 

 

Tabela 3 - Exportação de Couros / Valor médio exportado Janeiro a Setembro - 2008 x 2007 Table 3 - Leather Exportation / Average exporting value January to September  – 2008 x 2007
Tipo de Couro Kind of leather	Jan/Set 2008	Jan/Set 2007	2008/2007 (%)
Salgado / Salted	32,07	13,70	134,03%
Wet-Blue	49,17	45,36	8,38%
Crust	78,98	75,47	4,65%
Acabado / Finished	97,78	84,25	16,07%
Sub-Total	77,12	63,92	20,65%
Solas / Soles	44,31	41,52	6,72%
Ovinos / Sheep	16,72	16,36	2,18%
Caprinos / Goats	16,72	7,04	137,56%
Total Geral	74,84	62,16	20,40%

Fonte/ Source: SECEX – Organização/ Organization: COUROBUSINESS

Table 4 points in the direction of the consolidation of the leadership of export of higher added value hides. In the first nine months of 2008, 46.24% of the total exported was Achieved Hide, against 36.77% in the same period of the previous year. The sum of Crust (Semi-Finished) and Finished reached almost 2/3 of the total, about 64.75%. It is a very significant result that maintains the amount exported considering the slump in Wet Blue export. It is possible that this percentage is maintained, being stabilized, but we cannot be sure about that because of the lack of knowledge about the future of world trade by the end of 2009. in spite of this phenomenon, we should not forget that the predominance of export of higher added value hide has always been the goal to be achieved.

Tabela 4 - Participação % na quantidade exportada Janeiro a Setembro (2008 e 2007) Table 4 - % participation in  quantity exported January to September  (2008 and 2007)
Tipo de couro Kind of leather	Jan/Set 2008	Jan/Set 2007
Salgado / Salted	0,27%	0,20%
Wet Blue	34,99%	48,68%
Crust	18,51%	14,35%
Acabado / Finished	46,24%	36,77%
Total Geral	100,00%	100,00%

Fonte/ Source: SECEX – Organização/ Organization: COUROBUSINESS

 

Highlights of additional tables, below:

Table 5: The total export chap. 41 of NCM, from January to September 2008, is 6% of the same period of 2007 (US$ 1,532,239,985).

Tabela 5 - EXPORTAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE COUROS E PELES (CAP. 41) – Jan/Set de 2008/07 Table 5 - BRAZILIAN EXPORTS OF HIDES AND SKINS (CHAP 41) – Jan/Sep 2008/07
SIT. MONETÁRIOS (US$) VALUE (US$)			CRESC. (%) GROWTH (%)			SIT. FÍSICA (Kg) QUANTITY (KG)		CRESC. (%) GROWTH (%)
MÊS MONTH	ANO 2008	ANO 2007	VAR08	MÊS	ACUM.	ANO 2008	ANO 2007	VAR08	MÊS MONTH	ACUM.
Jan	183.489.682	176.601.526	-4%	4%	4%	30.342.136	35.168.257	-1%	-14%	-14%
Fev Feb	176.804.322	173.816.556	-4%	2%	3%	25.959.935	36.108.598	-14%	-28%	-21%
Mar	172.353.551	202.027.031	-3%	-15%	-4%	25.810.531	40.461.803	-1%	-36%	-27%
Abr Apr	183.046.397	187.924.209	6%	-3%	-3%	28.214.246	37.467.812	9%	-25%	-26%
Mai May	182.136.134	199.336.950	0%	-9%	-4%	29.066.775	36.296.626	3%	-20%	-25%
Jun	177.363.246	180.358.178	-3%	-2%	-4%	26.521.200	31.653.808	-9%	-16%	-24%
Jul	142.436.390	161.763.498	-20%	-12%	-5%	20.919.289	26.972.653	-21%	-22%	-23%
Ago Aug	164.742.347	188.394.096	16%	-13%	-6%	24.780.470	33.422.838	18%	-26%	-24%
Set Sep	149.867.916	156.422.657	-9%	-4%	-6%	27.043.400	28.153.208	9%	-4%	-22%
Total	1.532.239.985	1.626.644.701				238.657.982	305.705.603

Fonte/ Source: SECEX – Organização/ Organization: AICSul - CICB

 

Table 6: The growth of the quantity exported to China and Hong Kong (nearly 50% of the total) and Italy (25% of the total) represents an additional risk in the face of financial crisis in the U.S. and Europe.

Tabela 6 - DESTINO DAS EXPORTAÇÕES DE COUROS E PELES POR PAÍSES (CAP.41) 2007/06   -   BRASIL Table 6 - DESTINATION OF HIDES AND SKINS EXPORTS BY COUNTRIES (CHAP 41)
PAÍSES COUNTRIES	SIT.MONET. (US$) VALUE		PERCENTUAL PERCENTAGE		SIT.FÍSICA (Kg) QUANTITY		PERCENTUAL PERCENTAGE
	Jan/Set 08	Jan/Set 07	PART08	CR.07/08 GROWTH	Jan/Set 08	Jan/Set 07	PART08	CR.07/08 GROWTH
ITALIA	406.230.757	442.690.140	26,51%	-8%	60.088.785	79.565.370	25,18%	-24%
CHINA	315.677.133	379.802.869	20,60%	-17%	90.080.389	111.719.080	37,74%	-19%
HONG KONG	175.135.096	184.075.979	11,43%	-5%	27.477.088	39.354.480	11,51%	-30%
ESTADOS UNIDOS	141.725.591	171.583.493	9,25%	-17%	7.322.891	11.042.647	3,07%	-34%
VIETNA	75.100.228	36.121.594	4,90%	108%	11.458.436	7.324.098	4,80%	56%
INDONESIA	54.952.701	49.915.365	3,59%	10%	3.687.000	3.407.527	1,54%	8%
MEXICO	37.377.417	29.115.075	2,44%	28%	2.939.123	4.064.983	1,23%	-28%
ALEMANHA	32.184.289	21.528.619	2,10%	49%	2.686.291	2.481.052	1,13%	8%
PAISES BAIXOS (HOLANDA)	24.635.319	28.386.486	1,61%	-13%	2.109.134	2.995.933	0,88%	-30%
JAPAO	23.640.732	19.601.762	1,54%	21%	2.564.704	2.830.178	1,07%	-9%
SUB-TOTAL	1.286.659.263	1.362.821.382			210.413.841	264.785.348
Demais Países Other countries	245.580.722	263.823.319			28.244.141	40.920.255
TOTAL	1.532.239.985	1.626.644.701			238.657.982	305.705.603

Fonte/ Source: SECEX – Organização/ Organization: AICSul - CICB

 

Table 7: Data from this table are important sources of analysis, but there is no way to compare exported kilo to value and deduce what is best for Brazilian exports. The proper comparison is value per unit of exported leather.

Tabela 7 - EXPORTAÇÕES BRASILEIRAS DE COUROS POR CLASSIFICAÇÃO DAS NCMs Jan / Set 2008 Table 7 - BRAZILIAN LEATHER EXPORTATION BY NCM CLASSIFICATION January to September 2008
CLASSIFICAÇÃO DAS NCMs NCM CLASSIFICATION	PESO LIQ.  (KG) WEIGHT	PART (%)	US$ FOB	PART (%)	Nº DE COUROS Nº OF HIDES	PREÇO MÉDIO AVERAGE PRICE
						P/ COURO BY LEATHER	P/ KG BY KILO
1. Couros Bovinos Salgado Leve (med. 8Kg) Light Salty Bovine Hides (med.8Kg)	40.150	0,02%	51.856	0,00%	5.019	10,33	1,29
2. Couros Bovinos Salgado Pesado (med. 25Kg) Heavy Salty Bovine Hides (med.25Kg)	1.188.514	0,50%	1.633.614	0,11%	47.541	34,36	1,37
3. Couros Bovinos Wet Blue Pequenos (med.7Kg) Small Wet Blue Bovine Hides (med. 7Kg)	8.286.592	3,47%	22.841.708	1,49%	1.183.799	19,30	2,76
4. Couros Bovinos Wet Blue (med. 15Kg) Wet Blue Bovine Hides (med. 15Kg)	85.196.690	35,70%	277.237.872	18,09%	5.679.779	48,81	3,25
5. Raspa Wet Blue / Wet Blue Scraping	59.202.503	24,81%	37.375.504	2,44%	-	-	0,63
6. Couros Bovinos Sola (med. 7Kg) Sole Bovine Hides (med. 7Kg)	2.294.416	0,96%	14.524.267	0,95%	327.774	44,31	6,33
7. Couros Bovinos Semi-Acabado (med. 5,5Kg) Semi-Trimmed Bovine Hides (med. 5,5Kg)	18.165.523	7,61%	272.217.540	17,77%	3.302.822	82,42	14,99
8. Couros Bovinos Acabados (med. 5,5 Kg) Trimmed Bovine Hides (med. 5,5Kg)	49.883.341	20,90%	886.871.765	57,88%	9.069.698	97,78	17,78
Sub-Total - Couros Bovinos Subtotal - Bovine Hides	224.257.729	93,97%	1.512.754.126	98,73%	19.616.432	77,12	6,75
Demais Couros / Other Hides
Peles de Eqüídeos / Equidae Hides	0.435	0,00%	0.931	0,00%
Peles de Ovinos / Ovine Hides	514.692	0,22%	8.604.121	0,56%
Peles de Caprinos / Caprine Hides	82.021	0,03%	1.371.009	0,09%
Peles de Suínos / Swine Hides	17.548	0,01%	238.452	0,02%
Peles de Répteis / Reptile Hides	1.379	0,00%	115.707	0,01%
Peles de outros animais / Other animals hides	1.455	0,00%	79.933	0,01%
Aparas e couro reconstituído Chippings and reconstructed leather	13.782.723	5,78%	9.075.706	0,59%
Sub-Total - Demais Couros Subtotal - Other Hides	14.400.253	6,03%	19.485.859	1,27%
TOTAL DO CAP. 41 – COUROS	238.657.982	100,00%	1.532.239.985	100,00%

Fonte/ Source: SECEX – Organização/ Organization: AICSul – CICB

 

Table 8: Export of bovine hide, month by month. Slump of 22% in exported quantity influenced by the slump in the export of Wet Blue.

Tabela 8 - EXPORTAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE COUROS BOVINOS Table 8 - BRAZILIAN EXPORTATION OF BOVINE HIDES
MÊS MONTH	NÚMERO DE COUROS NUMBER OF HIDES		CRESC. (%) GROWTH			VALOR (US$) VALUE		CRESC. (%) GROWTH
	ANO 2008	ANO 2007	VAR 08	MÊS MONTH	ACUM ACCUM	ANO 2008	ANO 2007	VAR 08	MÊS MONTH	ACUM ACCUM
Jan	2.384.938	3.036.108	-6%	-21%	-21%	181.668.983	175.553.082	-4%	3%	3%
Fev Feb	2.234.329	2.993.587	-6%	-25%	-23%	174.429.211	172.329.622	-4%	1%	2%
Mar	2.165.907	3.300.359	-3%	-34%	-27%	170.917.786	200.558.912	-2%	-15%	-4%
Abr Apr	2.373.028	2.950.014	10%	-20%	-25%	181.142.976	185.239.189	6%	-2%	-3%
Mai May	2.244.946	2.893.281	-5%	-22%	-25%	179.320.585	196.592.320	-1%	-9%	-5%
Jun	2.209.990	2.608.330	-2%	-15%	-23%	175.155.644	178.178.987	-2%	-2%	-4%
Jul	1.753.895	2.260.370	-21%	-22%	-23%	140.171.107	159.908.748	-20%	-12%	-5%
Ago Aug	2.101.199	2.813.527	20%	-25%	-24%	162.468.377	185.554.999	16%	-12%	-6%
Set Sep	2.148.199	2.307.135	2%	-7%	-22%	147.479.457	154.426.376	-9%	-4%	-6%
Total	19.616.431	25.162.711				1.512.754.126	1.608.342.235

Fonte/ Source: SECEX – Organização/ Organization: AICSul - CICB

 

Table 9: Export of Salted Hide, month by month. Insignificant participation in the context of leather export.

Tabela 9 - EXPORTAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE COUROS BOVINOS SALGADOS Table 9 - BRAZILIAN EXPORTATION OF SALTED BOVINE LEATHER
	FÍSICOS (Nº COUROS) QUANTITY (Nº OF HIDES)		CRESC. (%) GROWTH(%)			MONETÁRIOS (US$) VALUE (US$)		CRESC. (%) GROWTH
MÊS MONTH	ANO 2008	ANO 2007	VAR08	MÊS MONTH	ACUM. ACCUM.	ANO 2008	ANO 2007	VAR08	MÊS MONTH	ACUM. ACCUM
Jan	1.130	1.788	-79%	-37%	-37%	8.960	28.740	-81%	-69%	-69%
Fev Feb	4.407	7.855	290%	-44%	-43%	41.881	133.367	367%	-69%	-69%
Mar	0.000	10.575	-100%	-100%	-73%	0.000	105.446	-100%	-100%	-81%
Abr Apr	1.906	4.801	-	-60%	-70%	9.883	60.192	-	-84%	-81%
Mai May	9.284	8.306	387%	12%	-50%	324.816	126.926	3187%	156%	-15%
Jun	11.919	1.920	28%	521%	-19%	470.592	23.608	45%	1893%	79%
Jul	8.840	3.438	-26%	157%	-3%	334.779	47.259	-29%	608%	127%
Ago Aug	4.645	4.936	-47%	-6%	-3%	96.208	92.940	-71%	4%	108%
Set Sep	10.429	6.642	125%	57%	5%	398.351	70.222	314%	467%	145%
Total	52.560	50.261				1.685.470	688.700

 

Table 10: Export month by month of Wet Blue. 44% slump until September!

Tabela 10 - EXPORTAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE COUROS BOVINOS WET BLUE Table 10 - BRAZILIAN EXPORTATION OF WET BLUE BOVINE HIDES
	FÍSICOS (Nº COUROS) QUANTITY (Nº OF HIDES)		CRESC. (%) GROWTH			MONETÁRIOS (US$) VALUE (US$)		CRESC. (%) GROWTH (%)
MÊS MONTH	ANO 2008	ANO 2007	VAR08	MÊS MONTH	ACUM. ACCUM.	ANO 2008	ANO 2007	VAR08	MÊS MONTH	ACUM. ACCUM
Jan	939.134	1.614.415	-4%	-42%	-42%	47.911.237	65.437.451	-1%	-27%	-27%
Fev Feb	742.670	1.614.858	-21%	-54%	-48%	38.914.940	67.603.124	-19%	-42%	-35%
Mar	733.829	1.611.560	-1%	-54%	-50%	37.605.987	71.413.791	-3%	-47%	-39%
Abr Apr	814.805	1.489.569	11%	-45%	-49%	40.724.900	69.947.176	8%	-42%	-40%
Mai May	812.675	1.371.313	0%	-41%	-48%	43.028.915	69.781.121	6%	-38%	-40%
Jun	699.309	1.228.237	-14%	-43%	-47%	35.720.997	61.129.023	-17%	-42%	-40%
Jul	530.752	962.910	-24%	-45%	-47%	27.234.372	46.340.626	-24%	-41%	-40%
Ago Aug	651.790	1.316.197	23%	-50%	-47%	31.009.837	58.703.053	14%	-47%	-41%
Set Sep	938.615	1.041.055	44%	-10%	-44%	35.303.899	45.367.374	14%	-22%	-39%
Total	6.863.579	12.250.114				337.455.084	555.722.739

Fonte/ Source: SECEX – Organização/ Organization: AICSul - CICB

 

Table 11: Export of Crust, month by month. Growth of only 1% in quantity exported.

Tabela 11 - EXPORTAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE COUROS BOVINOS CRUST+VEGETAIS Table 11 - BRAZILIAN EXPORTATION OF CRUST AND VEGETABLE
	FÍSICOS (Nº COUROS) QUANTITY (Nº OF HIDES)		CRESC. (%) GROWTH (%)			MONETÁRIOS (US$) VALUE (US$)		CRESC. (%) GROWTH (%)
MÊS MONTH	ANO 2008	ANO 2007	VAR08	MÊS MONTH	ACUM. ACCUM.	ANO 2008	ANO 2007	VAR08	MÊS MONTH	ACUM. ACCUM
Jan	493.861	373.632	5%	32%	32%	39.474.898	26.293.268	4%	50%	50%
Fev Feb	456.310	378.913	-8%	20%	26%	36.934.054	27.374.763	-6%	35%	42%
Mar	431.498	478.474	-5%	-10%	12%	34.825.658	34.280.775	-6%	2%	26%
Abr Apr	467.808	436.788	8%	7%	11%	34.839.371	31.463.801	0%	11%	22%
Mai May	415.309	437.666	-11%	-5%	8%	33.568.312	34.044.410	-4%	-1%	17%
Jun	414.577	369.094	0%	12%	8%	31.499.277	28.690.914	-6%	10%	16%
Jul	296.962	351.735	-28%	-16%	5%	24.073.457	29.031.501	-24%	-17%	11%
Ago Aug	364.329	428.859	23%	-15%	3%	28.010.457	33.464.342	16%	-16%	8%
Set Sep	289.943	354.975	-20%	-18%	1%	23.516.323	27.815.787	-16%	-15%	5%
Total	3.630.597	3.610.136				286.741.807	272.459.561

Fonte/ Source: SECEX – Organização/ Organization: AICSul - CICB

 

Table 12: Export of Finished Hide, month by month. Slump also. 2% slump in the quantity exported in 2007.

Tabela 12 - EXPORTAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE COUROS BOVINOS ACABADOS Table 12 - BRAZILIAN EXPORTATION OF FINISHED BOVINE LEATHER
	FÍSICOS (Nº COUROS) QUANTITY (Nº HIDES)		CRESC. (%) GROWTH (%)			MONETÁRIOS (US$) VALUE (US $)		CRESC. (%) GROWTH (%)
MÊS MONTH	ANO 2008	ANO 2007	VAR08	MÊS MONTH	ACUM. ACCUM.	ANO 2008	ANO 2007	VAR08	MÊS MONTH	ACUM. ACCUM
Jan	950.813	1.046.272	-13%	-9%	-9%	94.273.888	83.793.623	-7%	13%	13%
Fev Feb	1.030.942	991.962	8%	4%	-3%	98.538.336	77.218.368	5%	28%	20%
Mar	1.000.580	1.199.750	-3%	-17%	-8%	98.486.141	94.758.900	0%	4%	14%
Abr Apr	1.088.509	1.018.856	9%	7%	-4%	105.568.822	83.768.020	7%	26%	17%
Mai May	1.007.678	1.075.995	-7%	-6%	-5%	102.398.542	92.639.863	-3%	11%	16%
Jun	1.084.186	1.009.078	8%	7%	-3%	107.464.778	88.335.442	5%	22%	17%
Jul	917.341	942.286	-15%	-3%	-3%	88.528.499	84.489.362	-18%	5%	15%
Ago Aug	1.080.436	1.063.536	18%	2%	-2%	103.351.875	93.294.664	17%	11%	14%
Set Sep	909.213	904.463	-16%	1%	-2%	88.260.884	81.172.993	-15%	9%	14%
Total	9.069.698	9.252.198				886.871.765	779.471.235

Fonte/ Source: SECEX – Organização/ Organization: AICSul - CICB

 

Table 13: Exports of ‘leather works’. Growth of 2% in quantity. Insignificant participation in the total.

Tabela 13 - Exportação pela NCM 42050000 (Obras de couro) Janeiro a Setembro 2008 e 2007 Valores em US$ 1,00 Table 13 - Exportation by NCM 42050000(Leathergoods) January to September  2008 and 2007 Values in US$ 1,00
MÊS MONTH	EM VALOR (US$) IN VALUE		CRESC. (%) GROWTH			QUANTIDADE (KG) QUANTITY		CRESC. (%) GROWTH
	ANO 2008	ANO 2007	VAR 08	MÊS MONTH	ACUM ACCUM	ANO 2008	ANO 2007	VAR 08	MÊS MONTH	ACUM.
Jan	5.843.134	6.599.168	-17%	-11%	-11%	1.343.864	1.738.832	-12%	-23%	-23%
Fev Feb	5.525.540	7.225.545	-5%	-24%	-18%	1.353.167	1.893.890	1%	-29%	-26%
Mar	5.805.630	7.118.076	5%	-18%	-18%	1.371.623	1.898.439	1%	-28%	-26%
Abr Apr	6.823.479	7.359.257	18%	-7%	-15%	1.625.065	1.834.699	18%	-11%	-23%
Mai May	6.312.182	7.754.039	-7%	-19%	-16%	1.353.704	1.723.625	-17%	-21%	-22%
Jun	9.645.137	7.414.786	53%	30%	-8%	1.515.772	1.988.833	12%	-24%	-23%
Jul	8.925.368	7.254.386	-7%	23%	-4%	1.396.125	1.911.112	-8%	-27%	-23%
Ago Aug	9.889.607	8.471.131	11%	17%	-1%	1.736.279	1.957.892	24%	-11%	-22%
Set Sep	9.667.731	5.639.436	-2%	71%	6%	1.772.096	1.392.383	2%	27%	-18%
Total	68.437.808	64.835.824				13.467.695	16.339.705

Fonte/ Source: SECEX – Organização/ Organization: AICSul – CICB

Revista Courobusiness, Ed. 60 – Set/out 2008.